Madeleine Homan Blanchard, May 12, 2026

Ysabella has prepared for her quarterly one-on-one meeting with her leader. She has thought through what she believes is going well and where she could use more direction and guidance. Over the last year, she and her leader have spoken several times about Ysabella stepping into the team lead role when the current lead moves to a new team. She has been taking classes in the company learning management system and is excited about the possibility of a new challenge.

A few minutes before the appointed time, she logs into the Teams meeting and waits. And waits.

Her boss sometimes runs late, but he always lets her know. After about five minutes, Ysabella checks her email, Teams chats, and phone for messages about a cancellation. Nothing. She continues to wait.  At fifteen minutes past the hour, she sends a Teams chat. Still radio silence.

Her mind begins creating stories about what might be happening. The dominant narrative is that her boss thinks she is too needy and has more important things to do than talk with her. A close second is that her boss plans to promote someone else on the team and does not want to tell her directly, so he is avoiding the conversation.  Then her thoughts drift to the many organisational changes happening around her, and she begins to wonder if her entire team is going to be eliminated.

After waiting a full half hour, Ysabella logs off and tries to focus on a task with a tight deadline, though she finds it difficult to concentrate.  Forty-five minutes after the meeting was supposed to begin, her boss pings her on Teams.  “I am so sorry. You are not going to believe this. The elevator in my building got stuck, and there is no service inside the elevator, so I could not let you know. I hope you were able to use the time well. Do you have time to meet now?”

Ysabella is almost faint with relief. She laughs at her tendency to instantly create disaster scenarios. As she logs into the delayed meeting, she makes a mental note about how much a leader’s seemingly benign actions matter to their people.

The Brain Craves Predictable Leadership

Ysabella’s reaction is not unusual, irrational, or overly emotional. It is profoundly human.  When information is missing, the brain does not simply wait patiently for reality to reveal itself. It fills in the gaps. And most often, it fills those gaps by predicting what is likely happening based on past experiences, perceived threats, and incomplete information.  In other words, the brain is a prediction machine.

We tend to think the brain’s purpose is to solve problems, get things done, and hopefully make us charming and witty enough to succeed socially. That is only partially true. The brain’s primary job is to keep us alive. When reality matches prediction, the brain conserves energy. Things feel stable, understandable, and safe. But when reality suddenly deviates from expectation, as it did for Ysabella, the brain experiences what neuroscientists call a prediction error.

Ysabella expected:

  • Her boss would join the meeting on time, or
  • He would communicate if plans changed.

When neither happened, her brain immediately began trying to explain the mismatch:  Maybe he is avoiding me.  Maybe I am not getting promoted.  Maybe my whole team will be eliminated.

None of those conclusions were accurate, but the brain is not always optimised for perfect accuracy. It is optimised for fast interpretation under conditions of uncertainty. This matters because the brain cannot process every moment from scratch. The amount of sensory and social information humans encounter every day is overwhelming. Prediction allows the brain to operate efficiently by anticipating what is likely to happen before it happens.

In Ysabella’s case, her brain kept generating explanations until new information arrived that allowed her to update her understanding of reality. The moment she learned her boss was trapped in an elevator, her nervous system returned to normal.

This is one reason uncertainty at work can feel so emotionally exhausting. When people lack clear information, their brains work overtime trying to generate explanations and regain predictability.  And in the absence of communication, people rarely assume the best.

The Leader’s Role in Reducing Uncertainty at Work

Leadership is not only about setting direction or driving results. It is also about helping people make accurate predictions about their environment. As Max DePree famously said, “The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between, the leader is a servant.”  Here are some ways leaders can create psychological steadiness at work:

Remain accessible and communicate closely. Keep people updated as reality changes. The brain craves certainty and clarity. When something changes, as it inevitably will, people need to hear about it directly and receive help interpreting what it means for them and their work.

Show up consistently. Anything leaders can do to help their teams accurately predict what they care about and how they will respond reduces prediction error and helps people stay emotionally grounded. This is one of the foundations of approachability.

Create structures with flexibility. Leaders should create dependable structures that help people understand how to succeed—but allow for flexibility.

Show appreciation. Give positive feedback with specific examples when people do what is required. This requires that leaders pay close attention to each individual, so they can recognise not only what the person did, but what they did well.

Leaders cannot eliminate unpredictability from the workplace. Just as Ysabella’s boss had no power over a malfunctioning elevator, leaders cannot always control organisational shifts, changing priorities, missed meetings, delayed decisions, and ambiguity.

But by being accessible, communicating clearly, showing up, remaining flexible, and showing appreciation, leaders can calm people’s brains and help them feel safe in an unpredictable world.